วันพุธที่ 27 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Kim Eng Stock Market Watch Recommends Take Profit RCL

Regional Container Lines (RCL) - TAKE PROFIT

Price (Bt) 8.60
Target (Bt) 7.60
Set Index 540.22

Poor 1Q09 results with a norm. loss of Bt749mn

Economic crisis and over supply hits 1Q09 results
RCL posted a very disappointing 1Q09 normalised loss of Bt749mn

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(Bt1.13/share), worst than our expected loss of -Bt522mn and worst than the loss last quarter at -Bt578mn. The company booked a forex loss of -Bt165mn, an adjustment for an un-realised loss on derivatives of Bt198mn and a gain from the sale of an asset of Bt4mn for a total gain of 37mn in extra items. When including these extra items, the net loss hit -Bt711mn (-Bt1.07 loss per share), an improvement over last quarter’s net loss of -Bt1.6bn.

In 1Q09, the total lifting volume was down 19% yoy to 561,012 TEUs. This was due to the financial
crisis that hit international trade volume and the competition from new-build vessels in the market place.
Revenues declined 21% yoy, while the cost of freight fell only 1% yoy due to fixed cost for ports and
vessel charters. The gross margin worsened to -10% from –6% last quarter.

Maintain 2009 normalised loss of -Bt671mn
Despite the 1Q09 normalised loss being more than our 2009 forecast of -Bt671mn (Bt1.01 loss per
share), we are maintaining our projection as we expect to see freight rates recover in 2Q09 due to higher
lifting volume in the Asia-Europe sector and intra-Asia growth 1% qoq. We also forecast the 2010 net
earnings to turn positive to Bt388mn.

Share is expensive - downgrade to TAKE PROFIT
We have revised up our RCL fair value (based on our DCF method with a discount rate of 13% over
five years) to Bt7.6/share. The current share price looks very expensive as it is trading on a 2010 norm
PER of 16.9x and above our fair value by 13%. Hence, we are downgrading our recommendation to TAKE PROFIT
on RCL.

Earnings summary
Year End Dec 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Sales (Btmn) 20,157 19,729 19,532 15,610 15,922
EBITDA (Btmn) 3,934 3,515 883 942 2,037
Normalised earnings (Btmn) 2,273 1,885 -736 -671 338
Earnings (Btmn) 3,073 3,816 -837 -634 338
Norm. EPS (Bt) 3.43 2.84 -1.11 -1.01 0.51
EPS 4.63 5.76 -1.26 -0.96 0.51
Norm. PER (x) 2.5 3 N.A. N.A. 16.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.8 3 14.7 16.3 7.2
Free Cash flow (Btmn) 4,633 3,280 1,618 894 1,786
CF/share (Bt) 7 4.9 2.4 1.3 2.7
BVPS (Bt) 22.2 25.4 23.7 22.7 23.2
P/BV (x) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
DPS (Bt) 1.5 1 - - -
Dividend yield (%) 17.40% 11.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Net debt/equity (X) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6
ROA (%) 11% 14% -3% -2% 1%
ROE (%) 21% 24% -5% -4% 2%
Gross margin (%) 18.40% 17.40% 3.80% 1.00% 7.30%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.

By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 19, 2009

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